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Description | bayes.net Recent posts: "How to run Cronicle (a cron replacement) in a Docker container", "How much of the fall in fertility could be explained by lower mortality?", "The special case of the normal likelihood function", "How to circumvent Sci-Hub ISP block", |
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bayes.net about all posts How much of the fall in fertility could be explained by lower mortality? Many people think that lower child mortality causes fertility to decline. One prominent theory for this relationship, as described by Our World in Data 1 , is that “infant survival reduces the parents’ demand for children” 2 . (Infants are children under 1 years old). In this article, I want to look at how we can precisify that theory, and what magnitude the effect could possibly take. What fraction of the decline in birth rates could the theory explain? Important. I don’t want to make claims here about how parents actually make fertility choices. I only want to examine the implications of various models, and specifically how much of the observed changes in fertility the models could explain. Constant number of children One natural interpretation of “increasing infant survival reduces the parents’ demand for children” is that parents are adjusting the number of births to keep the number |
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